January 8, 2013

Timing Swing Trades on HPQ

Take your pick: these trades represent how crap I trader I am, or how good?

Trade 1: Entered too late based on the technicals.   HP was coming off a ten year low, so I needed some convincing that the bottom really has been reached. HP Discover in Frankfurt did seem to be a success, so the stock jumped strongly. Clearly should have exited several days earlier when the candles were inside the bollinger band. That would have been  5% in 5 days, but I was thinking more along the lines of a long term trade.  After the sharp decline on 12/16, I the stock was turning around and about to dive again, so I opted for small profit rather than turn a nice rally into a loser.   Turned out the returns on this trade were juiced by the dividend paid on 1/3, giving an actual 2.9% profit in 5 days, which is not bad.  The ideal technical entry would have been between 11/16 and 12/3, where the candles are within the green and pink EMA lines.

Trade 2: This trade is still open. Again, not my best entry technically, should have waited a few more days of consolidation. Turns out this second rally is more solid, and currently at 6.7% in 14 days.

Disclaimer: I'm an HP employee, and that helps approximately zip with trying to figure out what how many billions my employer will write off next, and where the stock is going!


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