FSDPX (finally!) with 1.3% and 5.5% profit

This was a long complicated exit strategy to get myself out of a bad trade.

The original position was open at $85.81. This was a losing trade for a long time by my standards. This position closed only at a 1.3% profit because of a dividend payment. The dividend was partly what caused the steep dropoff in price in October.

In between was another profitable trade from $80.12 to $83.56. (4.3% in 26 trading days)

With a big loss on the original trade, I bought back at $77.27 to try and neutralize the loss. Buy timing was indicated by RSI at 18, a bounce off the lower bollinger band. In hindsight a little early.

The final trade ended going up nicely, with 5.2% profit in 41 trading days.  

RSI on the daily chart is at 97, so expect this to drop back this week. 

I think I will stay clear of this fund for a while. The whole thing was a bit exhausting.1

Closing FSDPX 8.1% in 24 trading days

This trade in Fidelity Select Materials (FSDPX) worked out perfectly - capturing 8.1% in just over a month.

Entry was classic entry on a pullback in a long term uptrend with regular cycles. You can see the overall uptrend as the blue dotted lines on the graph. This trade assumed the uptrend would continue to track within these channels.

Entry signals were the candles penetrating the bollinger band under both the 5 and 13 week EMA lines (pink and green), after a huge reactionary selloff by the market as a whole in January. Call it the 2013 hangover selloff.

MAC-D showed negative, meaning the movement would soon to be to the upside.

RSI of 19 meaning the stock was oversold and had a high chance or returning to its overall trend from the last months.

There was risk that the selloff was the start of a boarder market selloff, but overall market conditions tended to indicate that the overall bull market was continuing.

Sell point was over target price at exactly 90 on the RSI graph, with two green candles penetrating the upper bollinger band, indicating a pull back is highly probable. Watch in the next days for the pullback back to about $85 where the green moving average is.

Effectiveness of this trade compared with long term term fund performance:

My trade
8.1% in 1 month

Overall fund performance 
20.8 % over 1 yr
10.2 % over 2 yr
12.6% over 10 yrs