FSCHX 2.6% in 9 days

Everything looked poised for a downturn.

Here is the retrospective look. Was I right?

That's why RSI 80 (yellow line on the bottom graph) is the sell signal. Don't hang on too far.. you get greedy. It's better to look for new opportunities than try and squeeze profits out and then get in a panic when you a month's profit dissapear see them disappear in a few days

The powers of destruction are always greater than the powers of creation.

Take the profits why you are paying attention, not while you are distracted by falling prices.

FSCHX - Poised for a downturn

This is rather retrospective....haven't been posting many trades as Christmas holidays got in the way.

I closed this early as the chart looked like it was poised for a downturn, based on at RSI over 80 and other market conditions at the time.

Target was $156. Profit was 2.6% in 9 days.

Here is the retrospective look. Was I right?

That's why RSI 80 (yellow line on the bottom graph) is the sell signal. Don't hang on too far.. you get greedy. It's better to look for new opportunities than try and squeeze profits out and then get in a panic when you a month's profit disappear see them disappear in a few days

The powers of destruction are always greater than the powers of creation.

Take the profits why you are paying attention, not while you are distracted by falling prices.

Opening FSCHX

Closing FSCHX 6.0% in 30 days - retrospective

Hindsight shows how well timed this exit was.

A ton of exit signals on this one - confirmed in hindsight:

 - Exceeded profit target (blue dotted line to $156)

- Upper bollinger band penetrated with a big runup to the bollinger band that week

 - sequence of bars edging closer to the bollinger band

- RSI above 70

- EMA 5 above EMA 13

 - MACD 5 (blue) above MACD 13 (yellow)

Closing FWRLX 3.0% in 60 days

Closing FSCPX 3.9% in 59 days

Closing HPQ 7.7% in 9 days

Profiting off earnings. 7.7% in 9 days is definitely a sell.

Sell signal RSI-90

Closing FSCSX 4.4% in 51 days

Closing FSHOX 2.6% in 59 days

Closing FSDPX 8.1% in 24 trading days

This trade in Fidelity Select Materials (FSDPX) worked out perfectly - capturing 8.1% in just over a month.

Entry was classic entry on a pullback in a long term uptrend with regular cycles. You can see the overall uptrend as the blue dotted lines on the graph. This trade assumed the uptrend would continue to track within these channels.

Entry signals were the candles penetrating the bollinger band under both the 5 and 13 week EMA lines (pink and green), after a huge reactionary selloff by the market as a whole in January. Call it the 2013 hangover selloff.

MAC-D showed negative, meaning the movement would soon to be to the upside.

RSI of 19 meaning the stock was oversold and had a high chance or returning to its overall trend from the last months.

There was risk that the selloff was the start of a boarder market selloff, but overall market conditions tended to indicate that the overall bull market was continuing.

Sell point was over target price at exactly 90 on the RSI graph, with two green candles penetrating the upper bollinger band, indicating a pull back is highly probable. Watch in the next days for the pullback back to about $85 where the green moving average is.

Effectiveness of this trade compared with long term term fund performance:

My trade
8.1% in 1 month

Overall fund performance 
20.8 % over 1 yr
10.2 % over 2 yr
12.6% over 10 yrs

Closing FIUIX 4.7% profit in 39 days

This FIUIX trade was entered after the EMA- cross (pink crossing green) in an uptrend. MAC-D on the second graph lines were closing in on each other, indicating an uptrend was forming.

The MAC-D lines were about the baseline indicating continuation of the uptrend.

The trade hit my price target of $22.75 after 39 trading days. RSI wasn't indicating a definite sell as it was only at 82. RSI-5 at 90 is my 'Strong sell' level, although if an uptrend is strong you can let it run above 90.

This fund could still go higher, but I was happy to take 4.7% profit.

Closing FSHOX 6.1% profit in 39 trading days

Fidelity Select Construction and Housing (FSHOX) has been range bound for the last year, trading between $50 and $60.

Nice potential to time the cycles and take advantage of big short term movements in the fund price.

Entry was based on a huge selloff just before Christmas. The assumption was that this fund would return to similar levels as previously.

The risk was that the downturn was the beginning of a larger market selloff.

The first month was a little ragged as the price was jumping around with a false start, meaning this trade took a little while to develop.

Interestingly, the trade turned almost exactly the the lower dotted blue support line I drew on the graph. Then it rocketed upwards, and the final angle of the green line almost exactly matched the blue target dotted line.

Sell indicators were:

• RSI over 90
• Upper bollinger band penetrated by green candle.
• Profit target reached

Comparison with overall fund performance:

My trade

6.1% in two months

Overall Fund Performance

1yr 19.84%

3 yrs 19.35%

10 years 9.51 %

Clearly, this fund doesn't provide much long term security!

Closing FRESX 5.95% profit in 34 days

This was a nicely timed 401K trade netting 5.95% while the overall market went up and down like a yoyo.

This stock is clearly in a slow downtrend, with several 5 - 15% swings evident in the last eight months.  Blue lines on the graph represent potential trend and cyclic structure of the swings. These could be because of dividend payments, I didn't take that into account - the analysis was purely technical. If I managed to get a dividend payment I'll chalk it up to dumb luck.

Buy signal was the bounce off my blue dashed lower trendline on the top graph. Purchase was right on the green 5-day EMA on the weekly chart. The daily chart for these funds has two much chatter going on, but the weekly chart clearly shows the cyclic trends. This fund charges a short term trading redemption fee if the duration is less that 90 days (i.e. 12 bars on the graph), so I had to pay 0.75% to exit where I did. This was worth it considering the cyclic nature of the chart.

The red bars did not penetrate the lower bollinger band, indicating the downtrend was not too dramatic and dangerous. Often the penetration of red candles in the lower bollinger band can signal and accelerating downtrend.

MAC-D was below the line, with a series of red bars diminishing in size, showing the downtrend and slowed and was reversing, and a classic technical trading pattern of the MAC-D cross about to occur. The blue and yellow averages form a closing triangle, signaling an optimum buy point prior to the MAC-D cross.

RSI for the buy point was a little late - already at 45. Optimum entry point when you are trading based on RSI would been down at 10, but this stock turned around before then. And RSI way down at ten could be in a severe downtrend, so caution is required using that indicator alone.

Exit was conservative at $0.35 short of my target exit price. I could have let it run a little further, but the RSI was already 90 on the bottom graph, signaling that the stock is close to a reversal.

Overall market conditions of bullish in a bear market meant that the conservative exit taking 5.95% profit in 34 days was quite good. A buy and hold investor buying this fund in June last year (assuming by luck they bought at the low) would have made the same return in 8 months as this technical trade did in 34 days. A periodic investor in a 401K investing monthly would have probably ended up with a small profit, as the buy points would have varied, with some profitable and others not.