LEXG so close but so far. A lot of lessons

Weird things happening this week in my energetic universe. Last week I made a bit of profit on a stock called LEXG, which is a junior exploration company. The first trade I based on a series of daily gains within any pull back. I traded it for a quick 6.5% profit as a day trade.

The next day, there was a sharp pullback  - nearly 8 %. I decided that was an opportunity to get in again at $1.59. This time I held my breath a bit longer, keeping the position overnight. However I sold on the way down at $1.64 when another sharp pullback started. This time the pullback was  more than 10% in just a few hours. This all freaked  me out and I refocused on some other opportunities. I thought LEXG was going the direction of HHWW, when it's spectactular run up completely blew out back in November, leaving me in a panic selling, situation selling off the last of my position as it went from $3.25 to $1.03 in a day . HHWW never recovered, and is now trading around $0.40.

This week, the universe is giving me some lessons to be more persistent. If I seen the selloff last week in a overall trend for LEXG, kept my entire stake, and sold yesterday to close out the week, I would have made 80% profit in about ten days.

Here is another chart showing the extent of my missed opportunity.

The key here appears to be looking at the right chart. Because of my relative success with the two short term trades, where I was looking at a 5 minute chart, I missed the bigger trend revealed by the 1 hour chart above.

What did I do right?

 - On an intuitive level, I was attracted to the LEXG company and their business

 - The initial, very even trend felt similar to HHWW at the time I bought. Even daily gains with a number of green candles in a row. 

What do I need to do better?

 - Look at the big picture trend and stay with it. The pullback was healthy. There were multiple buy signals to support getting in again, all of which I missed because I wasn't looking. If I had seen these signals I could have got back in at say $1.60. Notice how it took off exactly where the previous sellout occurred - at $1.70. 

- The sell point would have been at $2.45 at the end of the day, when the bars stopped penetrating the bollinger band. With such a healthy 3 day profit, you have to have a stop in to retain the profit.  Once the candles were within the bollinger band, a suitable technical stop point should be the last penetration point of the bollinger band at $2.40. Or just pick a trailing stop of 5%. This would have given a three day trade of  $1.60 to $2.40 - 50% in three days. 

HHWW The profits have left the building!

Panic selling today as investors realize HHWW was pumped up way to high.

There is no shame to run for the exits if the building is collapsing: I sold my last position in HHWW as it collapsed from $3 to $1 in a day.  

Emotions way too much in play: I was beating myself up for not selling on Friday at $3.15 after the nasty plunge in the morning. My optimism that it would continue to rise was guiding my decision to hold rather than the clear signs that this hyped up run up was at an end.  TDAmeritrade doesn't allow trailing stops, market orders or triggers on penny stocks, so I had to pick the exit point manually, which means my emotions were way too much in play.  As I watched what happened just minutes after I sold, I was glad I held on to the profit I did.  All in all, this stock yanked my emotions around rather more than I prefer.

HHWW taking profit at $2.25 and $2.40

After taking 15% and 10% of the profits off the table because the volatility was freaking me out, HHWW continued to explode on news that they are entering the Chinese market with products going into Luxury Hong Kong store The Swank.

I'm not a day trader, so my exit points below were not optimum. If I were a day trading, I think I would have caught the run up to $2.40 yesterday $2.60 today as exit points. I do the best I can using automated triggers and limit orders while I'm in meetings during the business day, and do my analysis and these blog posts at night.

On the bottom left of the graph is the channel where this stock was contained within before it exploded. This was the channel that made me think HHWW was a good buy, before the 17% and 22% gains of the last two days.

The remaining 75% of my position is at 75%  profit in 10 trading days.

 Run, Horiyashi, Run.

Double-up HHWW Position at $1.67

HHWW is doing well. No signs of real weakness, so I doubled my position size. Today it's up another 2.37%, bringing my overall investment to 12% in 10 days.

HHWW Long at $1.40 Hariyoshi Worldwide

Normally I am skeptically of penny stock tip sheets and fashion stocks, but this tip on Hariyoshi Worldwide (HHWW) Inc  is turning out well with 8% gain in the last two days. The chart below is a daily chart, going up at  about 4% daily. This is a very speculative trade, on the OTC market, so you can't even use a trigger or trailing stop. Need to watch it very carefully and get out if it starts collapsing.

With antique tattoo based fashion Ed Hardy from Christian Audiger was very hip last season,  (disclaimer; my favourite cap is an Ed Hardy design). Hariyoshi III should be hip in the consumer run-up to Christmas, with Asian style slant tattoo chic. Brings back memories of my time in Tokyo as a twenty-two year old design student, interviewing designers in Harajuku.