February 28, 2011

ARMH Bought at $29.21

Bought ARMH at $29.21 on the pullback on the 22nd. This was higher than my original planned repurchase price of $27.50 but ARMH is showing a lot of strength in it's bullish trend so this trade was calculated to buy at the 21 day EMA line. This is my second ARMH trade in it's current uptrend. The first was 8% in 8 trading days some weeks ago.

ARMH then proceeded to get hammered by the HPQ earnings announcement, which dragged tech stocks down. I was watching the chart carefully, and working on managing my emotions. When a stock drops 5% the day after you bought it, it's hard to not take it personally. It I had put in a reasonable stop or trailing stop on this position the position would have closed at a loss.


However, by the end of the week, it had made a full recovery, giving me 3% gain in 4 days at Friday's close. As I write this on Monday morning, it's added another 3% to make this a 6% profit in 5 trading days.

February 25, 2011

Astounding recovery in Active Trading Portfolio

Crazy recovery from the absolute hammering these positions took earlier this week. Seems like the market just got the jitters because of the Hewlett Packard earnings over-reaction and the Libya situation.

From a poor month on Tuesday (2% overall gain in this portfolio this month) bouncing back yesterday and today to end up as 9% gain for the month. 

My income portfolio didn't do so well, it is basically only gained from February dividends, no overall capital gain.

Lets see what will happen on Monday. It would be nice to end up 9% for the month. 

February 21, 2011

Taming the Greed Monster


Our biggest emotional enemy as a trader is greed. 
Greed takes over when a trade is going well. We see profits climbing, and our emotions engage. The brain starts to release dopamine and seratonin, creating feelings of, enjoyment, self confidence and power. Our imagination begins to spontaneously create  positive scenarios of how much more higher this trend will go, and what the profits could do to your bank account.

Its natural that we don't want these great feelings to stop. Yet we know that all market trends come to an end. And the higher and faster and more crazy the climb, the nastier and brutal the fall is likely to be when the reversal comes. Greed is the desire for the trend never to end. It's the irrational voice that tells us to hold on and just wait, just squeeze a little more out of this trade, just bag a few more percentage points and boasting rights.

Whenever we experience and emotion that we are not in control off, it's likely that an emotional addiction is setting in.  Exiting a profitable trade while it is still climbing is probably so counterintuitive that you may have never even considered it before. But if we are to ever master the emotional game of trading, we practice self control again and again, while staring down the greed monster.

Can you exit a profitable trade while it's still climbing?
Exiting a profitable trade while it is still climbing is a great way to tame the greed monster. It also puts money in the bank rather than holding on and seeing those profits erode when your treasured stock opens below the last close and drops like a stone. You might have had a stop loss in place, but you would have made more money selling it the day before.

From the brain perspective, what are are trying to achieve is to exit trades without fixing attention on them. Fixed attention is where the brain automatically repeats something that happens in the past without you intending to do so. Attention fixes on things when the neuronal connections in the brain get reinforced so strongly during a particular life event, that when we need to move on and use that brain capacity for something else, we find we can't. Translated into trading, the feeling of not wanting to sell because you think the stock can go higher, is a form of fixed attention. The neuronal connection we have reinforced is greed - always wanting more and more, even when the stock chart or you intuition may be telling you it was a good trade already, and you should be cashing in.

Keeping your mind clean, trade after trade
Every trader has trades that stick in their mind, where they should have done something but didn't. Perhaps they held on as a stock soared 100% in two weeks, but then crashed 50% in a single day just while they were at the dentist and couldn't respond to the alert to sell... To keep our mind clean, after we exit, we need to wipe the emotional slate clean of anything that came up during that trade. That means being aware of exactly how we felt with the result, the execution, and the contribution of that trade to your goals for the month.

Taking profits in an uptrend is an expression of gratitude to the market, and refocusing your mind cleanly on the next opportunity. Thank you, you whisper to the Market. You have provided for me today. I am not being greedy. There is more profits waiting  for me... 

Cultivate an attitude of gratitute, exit your trades without fixing attention, and there will be another profit waiting for you.

Train your Brain to Trade

Trading is a mental game. There are some technical skills to master. And then there is mastery of your own emotions and mind.

Online trading technology, financial newsletters and huge amounts of free education have given us vast information resources that were unthinkable even 15 years ago when online trading first became popular with retail traders.

How do you plan to succeed as a small, independent trader seeking financial independence? Lets be clear, as small independent traders we are unlikely to compete with the leverage, computer systems and analytical manpower of Goldman Sachs or Merril Lynch.

However, we are trying to create financial independence from trading. That means having a mindset that allows us to see that there are unlimited possibilities for making money in the market every day. As a small trader that wants to

Is it easier to make 10% profit many times, or 1000% profit once? We can dream about finding the $1 penny stock that skyrockets to $30 in a year, but what really is the probability of that? You might spend five years looking for the once in a lifetime stock, where you could have been training your brain to see an abundance of 10% profit opportunities all over the place, and excel at taking them.

February 18, 2011

AREX Sold at $33 16% profit in 3 trading days

16% profit in 3 days, from the entry on the 14th.  Trading is like going to the casino. The gamblers mentality means you stay in the trade, always thinking the next day that the trend will keep going.

I exited this trade because there were three clear sell signals.
1. I beat my goal of 1% per trading day profit.
2. Price jumped out of the channel. AREX has been trading within a channel for months. Every time it breaks out, it comes back in quite quickly, giving us another buying opportunity.
3. Today's open and close were above the bollinger band. While this could also signal a huge breakout, I'm interpreting this as tension that will bring the price back to the average. Because of point 1 & 2, taking profit is  better than hoping the breakout will occur.

Trade the reality not the desire.

Cash in the bank is better than hold and hope

 You could argue that AREX is in a long term trend and this should be more of a buy and hold. However, I have XTEX for that, because it pays a dividend and is in an uptrend, I'm happy to stay in XTEX for the 6% dividend, and 6% capital gain in the last month.

I'll be looking for another  rentry point again on AREX because the middle-east uncertainty is increasing, and that is making people look at the horizontal drilling, hydro-fraccing and rediscover of oil reserves here in the USA.

February 14, 2011

AREX Long at $28.42 (re-entry)

Re-entered Approach Resources (AREX) today as its rest seems to be over and AREX will hopefully contine it's climb. You do have to wonder when this rally will peak. If you look at the monthly chart compared with the daily chart you can see what I mean - there is probably resistance at the mid-2008 high of $30. So I'm being very careful to see what will happen. Gas prices were $4 during summer of 2008, so using my simplistic logic, maybe AREX and prices will continue to climb throughout spring and then then world will end (again).




XTEX dividend paid 0.26c, and up 6% in 3 weeks

Both my current oil and gas plays are doing well. Crosstex Energy (XTEX) paid 26c dividend which gives it around 6.4% yeild at the current price. It's also up 6% from when I bought 3 weeks ago. I wrote on 1/26 when I bought this stock that I was worried about my entry point not being optimal, as it was above the upper bollinger band. The stretching of the bollinger band did pull the price back down for a day, but then the trend just continued like nothing had happened.

It's quite possible there might be another pullback tomorrow after todays sprint. Interestingly, the payout of the dividend didn't slow the stock down, as is sometimes visible with these types of limited partnerships.


This is a long term hold for dividend income and capital gain with a price target of $30 within 12 months, as there is an long term plateau within the $30 - $40 range. There is no reason why it shouldn't get there, as gas extracted from all the Texas fraccing oil plays comes on stream and these reservers are increasingly understood to be a critical part of US energy security given insatiable Chinese demand for gas reserves globally.

Re-entered the my Texas Oil and Gas play AREX today as it looks like it has finished it's bench and will continue it's long term rally.

February 4, 2011

YONG Long at $7.28. Who has heard of Fulvic Acid?

Target $8.50 within 30 days. Multiple bottom in $7 - $7.50 range. Good upside for $1 a share gain within next 30-40 days


Being primarily a technical trader, I went long in this company without even knowing what it produces. A little research led me to the Yongye International company website. One of the things I love about being an investor and trader is that it opens your eyes in a different way to the things going on in the world. Chinese companies like Yongye are up to something interesting, and moreover, they come to it from a completely different cultural perspective than we are used to in the west.

Developed through years of research, Yongye's Shengmingsu plant and animal nutrient products are primarily developed based on fulvic acid and Chinese herbs. When fulvic acid is present in adequate amounts, living cells are less subject to stress, are healthier and grow more abundantly.
Fulvic acid is a complex, acidic, biochemical polymer which is produced naturally by the decomposition of organic material over a long period of time. It binds to cellulose fibers and strengthens plant and animal cell walls. It also acts as an important transport agent which helps cells take in essential minerals and other nutrients needed for their growth. The size of fulvic acid molecules are smaller than, have more oxygen content and are more chemically active than humic acids and thus their exchange capacity is greater as well.
Fulvic acid can have 70 or more minerals and trace elements connected to its basic molecular structure. These nutrients attach themselves to fulvic acid in an ideal natural form which allows for the best possible absorption by plants and interaction with living animal cells. Because of the relatively small size of fulvic acid molecules they can readily enter cell walls. Living cells then readily absorb high amounts of fulvic acid and the essential minerals and other nutrients brought in by Fulvic acid. Animal cell activity levels increase and become better balanced because of the wide range of essential minerals and other nutrients brought to them by Fulvic Acid.

I figure if the stock makes me money, the least I can do is buy some fulvic mineral drops to see if the stuff works on humans.

Watchlist

Global Industries Ltd GLBL

Buy Reason: Oil and Gas prices rising, trading within strong channel
Buy Strategy: Buy on pullback to EMA 8 ($7.25)
Buy Price:$7.25
Price Target:$9 within 40 days

Atricure ATRC

Buy Reason: Strong Channel
Buy Strategy: Currently in a pullback, or coming off a double-top? 
Buy Price: $10.65
Price Target:$12 within 40 days

Yongeye International Inc. YONG

Buy Reason: Undersold with support at $7.00 - $7.25
Buy Strategy:
Buy Price: $7.22
Price Target:$8.50 within 30 days


February 2, 2011

Choppy Market Trading Strategies:Play the Pullback

Excellent article by Greg Guenter, just what I need for timing my re-entry into ARMH and AREX after taking profits yesterday and today
By Greg Guenthner, Penny Sleuth
February 2, 2011

During a roaring bull market, you can sometimes get away with buying less-than-ideal set-ups. The rising tide will usually bail you out of any imperfect trades. Yet so far in 2011, the choppy market isn’t handing out free money. You simply cannot afford to be sloppy in your trading.

Over the past several weeks, I’ve written a great deal on strategies to help you manage your trades, along with set-ups to avoid as the market became overheated
Today, I want to expand on this theme by discussing an ideal risk vs. reward trade. By incorporating this setup into your scans, I can all but guarantee that you will increase your winning percentage by limiting your trading to only the most favorable opportunities on the market.

We’re all aware that stocks will not go up indefinitely. Even the strongest uptrend needs a break to properly consolidate. You need to be able to find and exploit the best consolidation set-ups in order to successfully navigate current market conditions. These are the stocks that have the best chance at continuing their uptrends when the market rights itself. In order to help you properly identify the best pullbacks of uptrending stocks, I’ve listed some important tips below.

For our example setup, take a look at the following chart snippet:

First, I want you to note the moving averages. In this example, I’ve added the 10- (green), 20- (red) and 50-day (blue) moving averages. When planning a pullback trade, you always want to find the short-term moving average that the stock obeys

Aside from a sharp break in November that quickly recovered, you can see that this particular stock is obeying its 20-day moving average. With this important point identified, we can use the moving average as a guide for our entry and stop loss.



Now that the uptrend’s support has been established, you have to examine the trading volume to ensure the stock is consolidating properly. Ideally, you are going to want a stock that shows fading volume as it retraces toward support (red lines). If you see any big red volume bars, you might want to reconsider the trade. For this strategy, the volume pattern is just as important as the price action. In order to pinpoint the right time to buy, simply wait out the consolidation pattern. Your buy signal will occur on the day that the stock bounces off support (blue arrows) on higher relative volume (blue circles). In our example, there are two strong buy indicators flashing in December.


All that remains is setting your stop loss just a few cents below support — which in our example is the 20-day moving average. A low-risk trade following our example is the perfect maneuver in this choppy market. It gives you the opportunity to set a tight stop loss while reaping the benefits of a strong stock bouncing off support.

Sincerely,
Greg Guenthner

AREX Sold at $28 11% profit in 11 trading days

Sold AREX at planned profit target of $28. Although still in an uptrend, this trade met my profit target of 1% profit per trading day (11% in 11 days) for any individual trade.

Plan your trade, and trade your plan

Note how the candles were 'surfing up' the upper Bollinger band (light pink line on the graph). I think of Bollinger bands as rubber bands. The trade price stretches the rubber band either above or below the overall direction of the trend. The more the Bollinger band 'stretches' away from the  longer-term trend (green and red moving averages, or the red line I drew in), the faster will be the correction back to the average trend.

In this trade, I was more focused on putting cash in the bank, rather than holding and hoping that it would continue to penetrate above the Bollinger band. 11% in 11 trading days is a pretty good profit, so I felt good about taking the cash off the table, even in a stock that is still in a uptrend. In my mind, it's a bit like taking your chips off the table at the casino while you are ahead, in order to stop you gambling bigger and blowing up your stake. Its a risk/reward balancing act. Given that my entire portfolio is up 2% in just first two days of  February, I'm inclined to like having the cash in the bank to give my month a good solid start.

Cash in the bank is always better than hold and hope.

The trend in AREX is however way too good to ignore. What I'll now be looking for is a pull-back where the candles cross the red trend line I drew on the graph.  I'm pretty confident that the overall rising price of oil, and the overall rising market will cause AREX to continue to rise. So I put the order in already to buy at the point on this line where I estimated the pullback will go back to (+200 LMT icon on the graph).


February 1, 2011

ARMH Sold at $27.14 8% in 8 trading days

Taking profits. Meets my 1% profit per trading day rule for taking gains rather than hoping the stock will continue to risk and then getting whacked by fast price retrenchments. I think it will pull back before potentially resuming this climb.


CMO quarterly dividend paid 39c 12.27% yield p/a at current price

NLY Quarterly Dividend Paid 64c 14% yield p/a at current price

AOD Monthly Dividend 6c 11.8% p/a yield at current price

AGD Monthly Dividend paid 0.6c 9% yield at current price, and 20% gain in 4 months

(via COMTEX News Network)--

SmarTrend identified an Uptrend for Alpine Global Dynamic Dividend (NYSE: AGD) on October 07, 2010 at $6.67. In approximately 4 months, Alpine Global Dynamic Dividend has returned 20.3% as of today's recent price of $8.02.
In the past 52 weeks, shares of Alpine Global Dynamic Dividend have traded between a low of $5.62 and a high of $11.94 and are now at $8.02, which is 43% above that low price.
Alpine Global Dynamic Dividend is currently above its 50-day moving average of $7.46 and above its 200-day moving average of $7.44. Look for these moving averages to climb to confirm the company's upward momentum.
In the last five trading sessions, the 50-day MA has climbed 0.7% while the 200-day MA has slid 0.72%.
SmarTrend will continue to scan these moving averages and a number of other proprietary indicators for any shifts in the trajectory of Alpine Global Dynamic Dividend shares.


Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/press-releases/11/01/c811288/alpine-global-dynamic-dividend-the-trend-continues-up-agd#ixzz1Cid2QWIR

FIDSX 5.2% in 31 days