February 18, 2011

AREX Sold at $33 16% profit in 3 trading days

16% profit in 3 days, from the entry on the 14th.  Trading is like going to the casino. The gamblers mentality means you stay in the trade, always thinking the next day that the trend will keep going.

I exited this trade because there were three clear sell signals.
1. I beat my goal of 1% per trading day profit.
2. Price jumped out of the channel. AREX has been trading within a channel for months. Every time it breaks out, it comes back in quite quickly, giving us another buying opportunity.
3. Today's open and close were above the bollinger band. While this could also signal a huge breakout, I'm interpreting this as tension that will bring the price back to the average. Because of point 1 & 2, taking profit is  better than hoping the breakout will occur.

Trade the reality not the desire.

Cash in the bank is better than hold and hope

 You could argue that AREX is in a long term trend and this should be more of a buy and hold. However, I have XTEX for that, because it pays a dividend and is in an uptrend, I'm happy to stay in XTEX for the 6% dividend, and 6% capital gain in the last month.

I'll be looking for another  rentry point again on AREX because the middle-east uncertainty is increasing, and that is making people look at the horizontal drilling, hydro-fraccing and rediscover of oil reserves here in the USA.

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