Caught this short term swing nicely for 3.8.% and 5.8% profit over 58 and 31 days respectively.
Showing posts with label FSHOX. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FSHOX. Show all posts
September 28, 2017
February 19, 2014
Closing FSHOX 6.1% profit in 39 trading days
Fidelity Select Construction and Housing (FSHOX) has been range bound for the last year, trading between $50 and $60.
Nice potential to time the cycles and take advantage of big short term movements in the fund price.
Entry was based on a huge selloff just before Christmas. The assumption was that this fund would return to similar levels as previously.
The risk was that the downturn was the beginning of a larger market selloff.
The first month was a little ragged as the price was jumping around with a false start, meaning this trade took a little while to develop.
Interestingly, the trade turned almost exactly the the lower dotted blue support line I drew on the graph. Then it rocketed upwards, and the final angle of the green line almost exactly matched the blue target dotted line.
Sell indicators were:
Nice potential to time the cycles and take advantage of big short term movements in the fund price.
Entry was based on a huge selloff just before Christmas. The assumption was that this fund would return to similar levels as previously.
The risk was that the downturn was the beginning of a larger market selloff.
The first month was a little ragged as the price was jumping around with a false start, meaning this trade took a little while to develop.
Interestingly, the trade turned almost exactly the the lower dotted blue support line I drew on the graph. Then it rocketed upwards, and the final angle of the green line almost exactly matched the blue target dotted line.
Sell indicators were:
- RSI over 90
- Upper bollinger band penetrated by green candle.
- Profit target reached
Comparison with overall fund performance:
My trade
6.1% in two months
Overall Fund Performance
1yr 19.84%
3 yrs 19.35%
10 years 9.51 %
Clearly, this fund doesn't provide much long term security!
January 18, 2013
Sold FSHOX - 5.2% in 30 days and high risk of pullback
Monthly RSI of 94 means high risk of pullback. Sector seems strong, retail investors are piling into the market, time to be cautious and take profits.
This trade was right up the center of the channel marked in red, and 5.2% (including the dividend) in 31 trading days.
Pullbacks always happen faster than profits, and you can't use trailing stops on mutual funds with my broker. Profits in the bank rather than hope when the technicals say the rally is breaking down.
This trade was right up the center of the channel marked in red, and 5.2% (including the dividend) in 31 trading days.
Pullbacks always happen faster than profits, and you can't use trailing stops on mutual funds with my broker. Profits in the bank rather than hope when the technicals say the rally is breaking down.
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