January 29, 2013

FRESX overbought - Closing Long Position

Closing FRESX long position for similar technical reasons as VGSIX.

6.4% profit over 73 trading days. Zero commission if you have an account with Fidelity

Technical Sell Signals were similar to VGSIX
  • Bollinger band - penetrated by green candles three times - sell signal
  • MACD-5 line (blue) is way above the volume bars - sell signal
  • RSI-5 above 90 - sell signal
RSI on the monthly chart is at 87, which indicates I could hang on longer to squeeze more out of this rally, but I'd rather take the profit. This trade is in my 401K account, where my emphasis on seeing the account balance go up every month and taking profits when they present themselves, rather than watching the balance go up and down with the market. 

Of the last 18  trades in my 401K, 17 were profitable, so the strategy of taking profits seems to be working. Better than the usual 'buy and hope' investing that is encouraged in retirements accounts.

If a 'buy and hope' investor had bought FRESX in 2008, around 5 years ago, they would have made around 6.4% profit over 5 years. They would have seen their investment be at a loss for around 90% of that time. If they'd had the courage to hold to the market bottom in 2009, they would have seen their investment lose 70% of its value within the space of a year, before recovering over the course of the following 4 years. 

Through use of technical analysis, this trade made 6.4% profit in under 3 months.


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