April 4, 2011

AREX Sold at $32.87 4.5% profit in 2 days

Entered this trade just on Friday, after it dropped back over 6%. I didn't think the large drop was warranted as AREX has been in a solid uptrend since September. So I entered on Friday late afternoon, with my price target being $34.90 in 10 trading days

Nice surprise to find by midday it had made up most of the loss, and at that price, was performing twice the daily profit than my target, so I sold based on a limit order at $32.87. This was designed to cash in on the mornings quick movement and bank the profit. AREX does appear to be becoming increasingly volatile, so I'm inclined to take quick wins but get in again if the trend does appear to be sustainable.

Notice the daily candles. The big red candle on Friday following the is a bearish engulfing reversing pattern. The same red candle penetrated the upper bollinger band, creating tension that resulted in the sharp plunge downward.  Look at the previous time a big red candle opened above the bollinger band on March 7. The price went straight down and through the EMA in a single day. Because there was no upwards momentum, things went downhill - admittedly with help from the rest of the market. Yesterday I judged that there still was enough momentum in the upwards trend to see a bounce.

Todays green candle shows selling pressure to the downside, with the close barely above the open. I think today I was lucky with the bounce, and might will stay away from AREX until the volatility calms down a little.

It could even be developing into a classic double top pattern, which could even indicate opportunities to short this stock will come along. However with the price of gas at the pump going up every week all spring and summer long, just like in the summer of 2008, it could be that AREX just keeps on climbing.


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