November 14, 2010

I timed the entry on this AGNC short trade perfectly

timed the entry on this AGNC short  trade perfectly, but tightened up my trigger way to much when it started to show some profit. So I came up with some revised rules about how to set trade exit triggers. Triggering too early in this AGNC short trade, I covered my commission, but then adjusted the trigger too soon and too tight. The trigger closed the position at a negligable profit, but the next day there was a huge gap down to the price that would have allowed taking a 3% profit in only 3 days - which is right on target for my desired profitability of 1% profit per day in the market.

First cover your commission, to make sure you are not preoccupied with commissions eating into your profits because of trading too much. If you a just a small investor where you are measuing the success of a trade in how it compares to paying your monthly electricity bill, this is a factor, even with $10 commissions.  


Next set the trigger to about the Average Daily Range above the closing price, on a daily basis for the sort of momentum/swing trades I do.  On the AGNC trade, this would have been about 40c above the Friday close, so $28.98. That would have locked in a good chunk of the gap down, but leaving some space for the likely volatility that may occur because of the sharp dip in price.

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